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2024 Comprehensive Analysis of the crypto market: In-depth interpretation of mainstream public chains, emerging tracks, and future trends
1. Market Overview
I.1 Cryptocurrency Market Fundamentals
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2024 increased from $2.31 trillion to $3.33 trillion, a growth of 44.2%. This growth is attributed to key events such as the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and Trump's election victory. Bitcoin's dominance rose to 56.8%, mainly due to the doubling of ETF assets under management, reflecting increased interest from institutional investors.
The performance of Ethereum ETFs has been relatively flat, with institutional investors showing a clear preference for Bitcoin. Solana has performed impressively, with SOL price rising by 29.3% and a net inflow of $2 billion into its ecosystem.
The DeFi market share is expanding, with the total locked value ( TVL ) doubling. The trading volume ratio of DEX/CEX has increased from 9.37% to 11.05%, with an annual trading volume reaching 2.67 trillion USD. The DeFi TVL market shares of Solana and Base have both doubled, reaching 7.17% and 3%, respectively.
Stablecoins have adopted acceleration, with a market capitalization growth of 26.8%, reaching a historical high of $205 billion. New entrants like Ethena are driving this trend. The potential approval of ETFs for assets like XRP and SOL in the future will bring positive catalysts.
I.2 Macroeconomic Environment and Politics
Politics
Changes in the political landscape of the United States, Trump is elected president again, and the Republican Party wins a majority in Congress. Trump's America First policy may trigger global trade protectionism. His crypto-friendly policies have sparked optimism in the industry, but the actual effects still need to be observed.
Europe is affected by the Russia-Ukraine war, energy prices are rising, and military spending is increasing. The influence of right-wing political parties has significantly strengthened. Europe's approach to crypto regulation is more of a follow-up, with the MiCA legislation clarifying the regulatory framework.
The situation in the Middle East is turbulent, with the conflict between Israel and Hamas ongoing. Several countries in South America are advancing the legalization of cryptocurrency.
Economy
In 2024, the global GDP growth rate is 2.6% and the inflation rate is 2.5%. The US economy is stabilizing, while the Eurozone is experiencing slow growth due to geopolitical conflicts. China faces challenges such as weak consumption and export obstacles. Emerging market countries are affected by the US dollar interest rate hikes, with some countries experiencing severe depreciation of their local currencies.
The three major U.S. stock indices surged, with technology stocks performing the best. AI technology has shown disruptive potential in multiple fields. The Japanese stock market reached a new high in over 30 years, benefiting from loose monetary policy and export advantages.
2. Bitcoin
2.1 Product and Protocol Design
In the second half of 2024, Bitcoin will have significant software upgrades, such as Bitcoin Core 28.0 introducing flexible transaction forwarding strategies that support zero-fee transaction forwarding.
The discussion on the protocol layer design continues, focusing mainly on soft fork proposals. Developers have differing opinions on proposals to add new opcodes, improve the Lightning Network, and so on. Proposals such as OP_CTV, OP_CAT, and LNHANCE each have their supporters, but consensus has yet to be reached.
A certain form of consensus and development may emerge by 2025. The implementation of BitVM is still progressing steadily, with current focus on the design and implementation of cross-chain bridges.
2.2 Layer 2 - Lightning Network
The total amount of Lightning Network channels remains around 5000 BTC. The number of nodes is basically stable, but the number of channels continues to decrease, which may indicate liquidity concentration or early channel closures.
BOLT12( offer ) is adopted by many clients and supports static payment methods. Some Layer 1 networks are developing Layer 2 solutions compatible with BOLT specifications.
The feasibility of the business model remains a primary focus. Payment service projects, especially those utilizing the Lightning Network as a settlement layer for cross-border transactions, may receive more attention. Future development depends on the issuance of stablecoins on the Lightning Network.
2.3 Layer 2 - Side Chains
The performance of various Layer 2 projects is uneven. The challenges faced by BTCFi include reliance on unsustainable TVL surges and airdrop incentives. The key to success lies in ensuring asset security and pursuing a vertical integration strategy.
On-chain Assets 2.4
The on-chain asset activity of Bitcoin is relatively low, and overall it has not appreciated with the rise in Bitcoin prices. BRC20, Runes, and other meta-protocol assets have performed poorly. RGB is still being promoted, and progress has been made in its integration with the Lightning Network. Taproot Assets, launched by Lightning Labs, enables low-cost minting of stablecoins.
The development of on-chain asset tracks is limited by DEX experience and insufficient liquidity, while CEX remains important.
2.5 BTCFi
BTCFi provides additional income for Bitcoin holders, with the total locked value expected to grow. Staking, liquid staking, and liquid re-staking have become the main income paths. Babylon attracts a large TVL, and various LST projects are emerging.
The challenges faced by BTCFi include the TVL calculation method and issues with the realization of promised returns. Future development directions include improving the efficiency of Bitcoin liquidity utilization and supporting a wider range of asset classes.
3.Ethereum
Despite the launch of the ETH ETF, its performance is not as good as that of the Bitcoin ETF. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to 0.037, highlighting institutional investors' preference for Bitcoin. Layer 2 gas fees are lower than those of Ethereum, leading to capital inflows into projects like Base.
EVM is still the most dominant and active virtual machine. MegaETH and Monad are among the most anticipated projects of 2025. Ethereum and its EVM ecosystem are expected to maintain their dominant position in 2025.
3.1 L2s
After the Dencun upgrade, rollups transaction fees have decreased by over 90%. Base, OP Mainnet, and Arbitrum have achieved net inflows of $3.5 billion, $2.1 billion, and $1.7 billion, respectively. The daily transaction volume of Layer 2 has increased by 325%, reaching 16.86 million transactions.
Base's significant growth is attributed to a smooth user experience, collaboration with Coinbase, and the launch of popular applications. Arbitrum has launched Stylus, supporting multiple programming languages. The OP Superchain continues to grow, with the total number of chains based on OP-Stack reaching 56 by the end of the year.
The L2 network is expected to further integrate and enhance user engagement, becoming an important competitor to alt-L1 networks.
3.2 Re-staking
The amount of staked Ethereum has generally increased, but the yield has dropped to 3%. Re-staking protocols like Eigenlayer are attracting a large amount of TVL. Symbiotic's TVL has seen substantial growth, rising from $307 million to $2.12 billion.
The future catalytic factors depend on the successful implementation of the reduction mechanism, as well as the flexibility provided to AVS, stakers, and node operators.
3.3 Ethereum Future Roadmap and EIP Proposals
The Pectra upgrade plan for 2025 includes:
The long-term roadmap aims to introduce core technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs and post-quantum cryptography by 2029.
Ethereum needs to adjust the issuance curve of staking rewards in the future and attract high-throughput applications to create greater value for holders.
Other Infrastructure
4. Solana
In 2024, Solana performed outstandingly, with a price increase of about 75%, and the SOL/ETH ratio rising to 0.06. Thanks to low fees and high throughput, many high-performance applications chose to build on Solana. The market capitalization of stablecoins more than tripled, reaching $5.1 billion. Developer adoption saw significant growth, surpassing Ethereum for the first time.
In 2024, the main focus of the Solana ecosystem will be in areas such as DePIN, meme, and PayFi.
DePIN
Helium and Render Network are migrating to Solana, promoting the development of DePIN. In 2024, a large number of DePIN projects will emerge, such as Hivemapper, Cudis, Grass, XNET, etc.
Meme
The year 2024 is called the Memecoin Year. Pump.fun has successfully launched, with various memecoins contributing significant trading volume on Solana. Analysis platforms like GMGN.ai provide more features to meet the investment needs of Memecoins.
PayFi
Solana Pay is used as an integrated plugin in stores supported by Shopify. Solana collaborates with VISA to open offline payment channels.
Looking to the Future
Future focus points:
5. Alt-L1s
Berachain
Introducing the Proof of Liquidity ( PoL ) mechanism to ensure incentive alignment. The BeaconKit modular consensus client is EVM compatible. TVL exceeded $1.5 billion before launch and surged to the eighth largest network after going live.
TON
Relying on Telegram's 900 million monthly active users, it attracted a lot of attention in 2024. Daily active users grew from 27,725 to 293,539. DeFi TVL increased over 10 times, reaching $261.7 million.
Kaia
Formed by the merger of Klaytn and Finschia, integrating LINE and KakaoTalk, with over 250 million users. Provides optimization measures such as account abstraction and gas fee proxy payment. TVL increased from 37 million to 60 million.
Move
The number of developers in the Move ecosystem has grown to over 1,500. Sui outperforms Aptos on several key metrics, including FDV, TVL, net capital inflow, and DEX trading volume.
MegaETH
EVM compatible, with a transaction throughput of 100,000 TPS. Introduces node specialization to optimize overall performance. Focus on how it competes with Monad and Solana.
Monad
Achieve high throughput through optimistic parallel transaction execution. The MonadBFT consensus mechanism reduces latency, and MonadDB optimizes data storage. Supports asynchronous I/O to enhance parallel processing capabilities.
Competitive Landscape
In 2024, the narrative is no longer limited to the competition between Ethereum and Solana. More and more alternative L1 projects are emerging, and they are expected to gain a larger market share in 2025.
6. Other Tracks
6.1 Meme
The overall increase in the Meme sector is 218%. Ethereum, Base, and Solana are the three most active public chains. The launch of Pump.fun has become a milestone, greatly unleashing retail demand. New tools such as Kaito, Photon, and GMGN.AI are continuously emerging to help users seize market opportunities.
![A Comprehensive Review of the Crypto Market in the Second Half of 2024 from Macro Environment to Vertical Tracks](