Saudi Arabia can control oil supply, but demand may be its fatal weakness.

According to Jin10 data on May 6, Saudi Arabia has hinted at being willing to engage in a painful price war to maintain its dominant position among oil-producing countries. However, due to the deteriorating global economic conditions, Saudi Arabia's standard strategy may not be as effective this time. This time, Saudi Arabia faces a significant issue. The strategy of increasing supply may not elicit the desired demand response, which is a crucial element for winning a price war. Since the beginning of this year, oil prices have fallen by 20%, primarily due to concerns about global demand prospects stemming from U.S. President Trump's trade war. It cannot be guaranteed that a big dump in oil prices will trigger a significant surge in demand. On the contrary, oil-producing countries may end up fighting fiercely for a shrinking oil demand pie. This could lead to further fluctuations in prices and potentially undermine Saudi Arabia's long-standing control over the market. (Reuters columnist)