Where has the alt season craze gone? Decoding the delayed bull run

Compilation: Vernacular Blockchain

For months, cryptocurrency traders have been anxiously refreshing price charts, anticipating the arrival of the "altcoin season," when altcoins are expected to surge significantly. However, despite bullish predictions and brief rallies, the altcoin season has yet to materialize.

Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, leaving altcoin enthusiasts wondering: why has the altcoin season arrived late? Will there still be an altcoin season?

01 Bitcoin's Iron-Fisted Control: Dominance and Institutional Adoption

Bitcoin's dominance — its share of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies — has hovered around 60% between 2024 and 2025, a level not seen since the bull market of 2017. This dominance reflects the market's preference for Bitcoin, attributed to its stability and widespread adoption by institutions.

• Institutional Attention: Bitcoin ETFs approved at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 have attracted billions of dollars in inflows to BTC, making it a "safe-haven asset" in the crypto market. Large institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin while ignoring altcoins.
• Halving Effect: The Bitcoin halving event in 2024 reinforces its scarcity narrative, attracting funds that might have flowed into higher-risk altcoins.

As analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out, "Altcoins typically only begin to rise after Bitcoin has completed its parabolic rise." With BTC still reaching new highs, investors have no reason to turn to altcoins.

02 Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Federal Reserve's Strict Control Over Liquidity

The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has been the invisible killer of the hopes of the altcoin season. Unlike the bull market of 2020-2021 (driven by near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing), the period of 2024-2025 is marked by Quantitative Tightening (QT) and high interest rates.

• Liquidity contraction: Quantitative tightening has drained liquidity from financial markets and reduced risk appetite. As speculative assets, altcoins rely on excess capital; without liquidity, they can only stagnate.
• Rate cut delay: Despite market rumors that the Federal Reserve may shift to a loose monetary policy, a rate cut is still a long way off. Both institutional and retail investors are reluctant to take risks in altcoins before borrowing costs decrease.

This macroeconomic background stands in stark contrast to the previous season of altcoin liquidity, when Meme and DeFi tokens surged significantly.

03 Oversupply of Altcoins: Too Many Coins, Insufficient Demand

The crypto market is flooded with over 15,000 types of altcoins, but liquidity cannot keep up. New projects are launched every day, but the total capital pool remains fragmented, leading to diluted potential returns.

• Capital dispersion: More tokens compete for the same liquidity, making it difficult for even promising projects to gain attention.
• Venture capital caution: The venture capital for crypto projects has decreased from $29.4 billion in 2022 to $7.1 billion in 2024, leading to a severe shortage of development funds for altcoins.

This oversupply has created a "crowded market" where only tokens with outstanding practicality or viral popularity can stand out—this is far from the ICO craze of 2017 or the NFT frenzy of 2021.

04 Retail Investors Absent

The altcoin season is usually driven by retail investors' FOMO (fear of missing out). However, retail participation in 2025 is noticeably weaker compared to past cycles.

• Social sentiment is low: Indicators tracking crypto-related social media activity show a lack of the frenzy seen during the 2021 Dogecoin or Shiba Inu craze.
• Cautious behavior: Retail investors who were impacted by the market crash in 2022 are now more inclined towards Bitcoin rather than altcoins. As one trader said, "When BTC has risen 150% this year, why buy Meme?"

Without the enthusiasm of retail investors, altcoins lack the fuel to ignite a sustained rise.

05 Regulatory Uncertainty: A Double-Edged Sword

Regulatory clarity is crucial for altcoins, especially those classified as securities. Although the pro-crypto stance of the Trump administration has fueled optimism, progress remains slow.

• ETF Delay: The altcoin ETFs for Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin are still caught in regulatory challenges. Analysts believe they have a 65-90% chance of approval, but the timeline remains unclear.
• DeFi and Stablecoin Scrutiny: The regulatory ambiguity surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and stablecoins stifles innovation and deters institutional investment.

Uncertainty will continue to exist until regulators approve altcoin ETFs or clarify the rules.

06 Historical Pattern: Patience is a Virtue

The crypto market is cyclical, and altcoin seasons usually occur in the last year of Bitcoin's four-year cycle. While 2025 is considered the next altcoin season, delays are not without precedent.

• 2017 vs. 2021: Both times the altcoin season occurred after Bitcoin reached an all-time high and entered consolidation. If BTC stabilizes above $100,000, capital may eventually flow into altcoins.
• ETH/BTC Ratio: The poor performance of Ethereum against Bitcoin indicates that the altcoin season has not yet begun. Historically, Ethereum usually leads the altcoins up, but its ratio against BTC remains close to multi-year lows.

07 Summary

Altcoins have not disappeared; they are just waiting for the right conditions. The dominance of Bitcoin, macroeconomic pressures, and regulatory hurdles have temporarily pressed the pause button on the altcoin frenzy. However, history shows that once BTC enters a stable period and liquidity returns, altcoins will have their moment.

Currently, it is key to invest patiently and selectively in projects with strong fundamentals—such as artificial intelligence, DeFi, or Layer-2 solutions. As the saying goes in the crypto circle: "Time in the market beats timing the market."

Stay alert, act cautiously, and keep a close eye on Bitcoin's dominance. The clock for altcoin season is ticking—it's just a matter of time, not if it will happen.