With the latest employment reports such as ADP non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims indicating a weak U.S. labor market, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have seen a rebound. This data has led traders to now expect the Fed will make three rate cuts this year. In the past 24 hours, a total of $270 million in short positions have been liquidated in the crypto market, with over $36 million being closed in just one hour. The market is currently awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate report, which will be key in determining short-term price movement.
Weak Employment Data Triggers Rebound in the Crypto Market
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have rebounded by nearly 20 million, 15 million, and 600,000 respectively in the past 4 hours, mainly due to the latest U.S. employment report. The ADP non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims reports indicate that the labor market is weakening, which has reinforced market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Analyst Skew pointed out that the Bitcoin price rebounded from the bid depth, gaining a buying volume of 100 million dollars. Bitcoin perpetual contract trading data shows that in response to the non-farm payroll data, most traders closed short positions and hedged positions, as they generally expect the Fed to further advance interest rate cuts.
Bullish Liquidation: Short Positions are Being Closed in Large Numbers
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has liquidated a total of $270 million in positions, with over $36 million in short positions being closed within just one hour. More than 94,000 accounts were liquidated in 24 hours, with the largest being a $2.25 million BTC-USDT liquidation order occurring on a certain CEX. Such massive liquidations usually happen when the price suddenly fluctuates significantly in one direction, forcing leveraged positions that are shorting the market to close due to an inability to maintain margin.
Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise: Market Prices in Three Rate Cuts This Year
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now believe that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17 is over 99%. Additionally, the market expects the Fed to cut rates a total of 75 basis points this year. According to the data, the expected probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has surged to over 47%.
This shift occurred after a series of employment reports were released, including the U.S. JOLTS job openings, ADP employment change, and initial jobless claims, all of which provided a basis for the Fed to resume rate cuts in September.
Market Outlook: Non-Farm Payroll Data in Focus
Global stock markets and the crypto market are currently awaiting the key non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate data for August, which will be released later today. The non-farm payroll data is expected to reach 75,000, up from the previous 73,000. Additionally, economists predict that the unemployment rate will rise from the previous 4.2% to 4.3%.
If the non-farm payroll data is below expectations, it may trigger a broader rebound in the crypto market, as this would further confirm the weakness in the labor market and strengthen the Fed's reasoning for interest rate cuts. As of now, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 2%, trading at $112,800. Its 24-hour low and high are $109,347 and $112,995, respectively.
In addition, on Deribit, the largest exchange in the crypto options market, after the expiration of $4.5 billion worth of crypto options, Bitcoin's trading volume increased by 16% in the past 24 hours, indicating a rise in traders' interest.
Ethereum's price has also broken through $4,400, rising over 1% from a 24-hour low of $4,268. Despite whales (large holders) selling off, its 24-hour trading volume remains at a low level. In contrast, XRP has rebounded over 2% in the past few hours, currently trading at $2.84. Its 24-hour low and high are $2.78 and $2.85, respectively.
Conclusion
The recent Rebound in the crypto market once again confirms the significant impact of macroeconomic data on the prices of digital assets. Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market have notably altered market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, thereby providing upward momentum for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be a key catalyst for the next round of market volatility; if the data comes in below expectations, it could further solidify rate cut expectations and drive prices up; conversely, if the data is strong, it may weaken the Rebound momentum. This event also highlights that the liquidity of the crypto market still heavily relies on macroeconomic narratives rather than just its own fundamentals.
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GateUser-a7be6e96
· 3h ago
Ape In 🚀
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GateUser-a7be6e96
· 3h ago
HODL Tight 💪
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IELTS
· 4h ago
Arbitrum officially launched the "DeFi Revival Incentive Program" (DRIP) on September 3, with a total quota of 40 million USD, aimed at incentivizing users to participate in lending and leverage cycling strategies through ARB Token rewards, thereby enhancing the ecosystem's TVL. The first season of the event will last until January 20 of next year, where users can earn rewards by depositing qualified assets and engaging in cyclic lending on protocols like Aave and Morpho. Meanwhile, the ARB Token is currently priced at 0.48 USD, firmly holding the critical support level of 0.45 USD, with on-chain volume rising by 18% within 24 hours, and the fundamentals continue to improve. DRIP program details: seasonal leverage incentives.
US employment data is weak, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP prices rebound, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times.
With the latest employment reports such as ADP non-farm payrolls and initial jobless claims indicating a weak U.S. labor market, the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have seen a rebound. This data has led traders to now expect the Fed will make three rate cuts this year. In the past 24 hours, a total of $270 million in short positions have been liquidated in the crypto market, with over $36 million being closed in just one hour. The market is currently awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate report, which will be key in determining short-term price movement.
Weak Employment Data Triggers Rebound in the Crypto Market
According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have rebounded by nearly 20 million, 15 million, and 600,000 respectively in the past 4 hours, mainly due to the latest U.S. employment report. The ADP non-farm payroll and initial jobless claims reports indicate that the labor market is weakening, which has reinforced market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Analyst Skew pointed out that the Bitcoin price rebounded from the bid depth, gaining a buying volume of 100 million dollars. Bitcoin perpetual contract trading data shows that in response to the non-farm payroll data, most traders closed short positions and hedged positions, as they generally expect the Fed to further advance interest rate cuts.
Bullish Liquidation: Short Positions are Being Closed in Large Numbers
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has liquidated a total of $270 million in positions, with over $36 million in short positions being closed within just one hour. More than 94,000 accounts were liquidated in 24 hours, with the largest being a $2.25 million BTC-USDT liquidation order occurring on a certain CEX. Such massive liquidations usually happen when the price suddenly fluctuates significantly in one direction, forcing leveraged positions that are shorting the market to close due to an inability to maintain margin.
Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise: Market Prices in Three Rate Cuts This Year
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now believe that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17 is over 99%. Additionally, the market expects the Fed to cut rates a total of 75 basis points this year. According to the data, the expected probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has surged to over 47%.
This shift occurred after a series of employment reports were released, including the U.S. JOLTS job openings, ADP employment change, and initial jobless claims, all of which provided a basis for the Fed to resume rate cuts in September.
Market Outlook: Non-Farm Payroll Data in Focus
Global stock markets and the crypto market are currently awaiting the key non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate data for August, which will be released later today. The non-farm payroll data is expected to reach 75,000, up from the previous 73,000. Additionally, economists predict that the unemployment rate will rise from the previous 4.2% to 4.3%.
If the non-farm payroll data is below expectations, it may trigger a broader rebound in the crypto market, as this would further confirm the weakness in the labor market and strengthen the Fed's reasoning for interest rate cuts. As of now, the price of Bitcoin has risen by 2%, trading at $112,800. Its 24-hour low and high are $109,347 and $112,995, respectively.
In addition, on Deribit, the largest exchange in the crypto options market, after the expiration of $4.5 billion worth of crypto options, Bitcoin's trading volume increased by 16% in the past 24 hours, indicating a rise in traders' interest.
Ethereum's price has also broken through $4,400, rising over 1% from a 24-hour low of $4,268. Despite whales (large holders) selling off, its 24-hour trading volume remains at a low level. In contrast, XRP has rebounded over 2% in the past few hours, currently trading at $2.84. Its 24-hour low and high are $2.78 and $2.85, respectively.
Conclusion
The recent Rebound in the crypto market once again confirms the significant impact of macroeconomic data on the prices of digital assets. Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market have notably altered market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, thereby providing upward momentum for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be a key catalyst for the next round of market volatility; if the data comes in below expectations, it could further solidify rate cut expectations and drive prices up; conversely, if the data is strong, it may weaken the Rebound momentum. This event also highlights that the liquidity of the crypto market still heavily relies on macroeconomic narratives rather than just its own fundamentals.