Recently, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has sparked a new round of speculation in the market regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy. Although the possibility of a rate cut in September has risen, there are deeper concerns hidden behind this expectation.

Powell's remarks hinted that the U.S. economy may face downward pressure, and even the possibility of a short-term or mild recession cannot be ruled out. This assessment primarily stems from the recent weak performance of labor market data. This week's market decline not only reflects concerns over potential interest rate cuts but also embodies uncertainty about the economic outlook, such as the weakness in retail data.

Despite Powell's repeated emphasis that the overall inflation situation is controllable, he also pointed out a phenomenon that warrants caution: the decline in inflation is synchronously weakening with the labor market. This situation has historically been associated with economic recessions. He specifically mentioned that although the unemployment rate has only risen by one percentage point, such a small change often signals larger economic problems.

Powell also discussed the "strange balance" in the labor market, suggesting that there may be structural issues in the employment market. At the same time, he mentioned the slowdown in GDP growth in the first half of the year, which further deepened market concerns about the economic outlook.

For the Bitcoin market, these macroeconomic factors have also had a significant impact. Recently, Bitcoin price volatility has intensified, and trading volume has slightly risen, indicating instability in investor sentiment. Nevertheless, large-scale sell-offs have not yet occurred, suggesting that the market still retains a certain level of confidence.

Looking ahead, the market will closely watch the reaction of American investors next Monday. If the market reinterprets Powell's speech, it may realize that the current expectations for interest rate cuts are actually aimed at addressing potential economic recession risks. This shift in perception could have far-reaching effects on market trends across various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.