Tianfeng Credit: The replacement bonds may reach 1 trillion within the year, and the net financing of government bonds for the whole of 2025 is expected to exceed 11.79 trillion.
Golden Ten Data, November 1st news, TF Securities fixed income analysis said that the follow-up fiscal increment of the market mainly involves four dimensions: debt replacement, adjustment of the current year's budget (filling the gap), capital supplementation, and budget arrangement for next year. For debt replacement, if we estimate 6 trillion yuan for three years, it is expected to be 2 trillion yuan per year. At the end of this year, a replacement bond issuance of 1 trillion yuan may be launched. For the incremental fiscal scale in 2025, we estimate it based on a general budget deficit rate of 3.5% + a new special bond of 4.9 trillion yuan + an issuance of a special ultra-long-term national bond of 1 trillion yuan. The estimated debt replacement issuance scale in 2025 is expected to be 2 trillion yuan. Corresponding to the supply of government bonds, it is expected that the net financing of government bonds in November-December will be 2,818.9 billion yuan, an increase of 775.3 billion yuan compared to 2023. It is expected that the net financing of government bonds for the whole year of 2025 will be 11.7936 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2682 trillion yuan compared to the estimated number for 2024, and an increase of 2.0082 trillion yuan compared to 2023.
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Tianfeng Credit: The replacement bonds may reach 1 trillion within the year, and the net financing of government bonds for the whole of 2025 is expected to exceed 11.79 trillion.
Golden Ten Data, November 1st news, TF Securities fixed income analysis said that the follow-up fiscal increment of the market mainly involves four dimensions: debt replacement, adjustment of the current year's budget (filling the gap), capital supplementation, and budget arrangement for next year. For debt replacement, if we estimate 6 trillion yuan for three years, it is expected to be 2 trillion yuan per year. At the end of this year, a replacement bond issuance of 1 trillion yuan may be launched. For the incremental fiscal scale in 2025, we estimate it based on a general budget deficit rate of 3.5% + a new special bond of 4.9 trillion yuan + an issuance of a special ultra-long-term national bond of 1 trillion yuan. The estimated debt replacement issuance scale in 2025 is expected to be 2 trillion yuan. Corresponding to the supply of government bonds, it is expected that the net financing of government bonds in November-December will be 2,818.9 billion yuan, an increase of 775.3 billion yuan compared to 2023. It is expected that the net financing of government bonds for the whole year of 2025 will be 11.7936 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2682 trillion yuan compared to the estimated number for 2024, and an increase of 2.0082 trillion yuan compared to 2023.