India Rejects Comprehensive Crypto Regulation? Concerns Over Systemic Financial Risks, Stablecoins May Become the Biggest Variable

India's latest government documents indicate that the country is inclined not to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for Crypto Assets, but rather to maintain the existing limited regulatory model. The core reason is that authorities are concerned that once digital assets are incorporated into the mainstream financial system, it may trigger systemic financial risks. This position has been officially disclosed for the first time and will have far-reaching implications for both domestic and foreign investors and India's rapidly rising digital payment ecosystem.

Regulatory Dilemma: Between Legalization and Loss of Control

The document points out that if detailed regulations are established for Crypto Assets, it will inadvertently grant them "legal status," attracting more capital inflows, which may ultimately threaten financial stability.

On the contrary, a comprehensive ban may curb high-risk speculation, but it is almost impossible to effectively crack down on P2P trading and decentralized exchanges (DEX).

Therefore, India has chosen a middle path:

1. Maintain limited regulatory clarity

2. Suppress speculation through high taxes

3. Punish fraud and illegal activities in accordance with current laws.

Currently, the total investment of Indian residents in Crypto Assets is approximately 4.5 billion USD, which has not yet posed a significant threat to financial stability.

Stablecoin Impact: Potential Challenges of the UPI System

The "GENIUS Act" signed by the United States in July establishes federal rules for dollar-pegged stablecoins, becoming an important external factor for India’s prudent assessment.

File Warning:

1. Stablecoins circulating globally are often pegged to the US dollar.

2. Widespread use may weaken the dominance of India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI)

3. Under market shocks or liquidity tightening, stablecoins may still experience price fluctuations.

This means that stablecoins are not only payment tools in the crypto market but may also become "diverters" in national payment systems.

India's Path Amid Global Divergence

India's prudent stance has been formed against the backdrop of global regulatory divergences:

United States: Actively advancing regulatory framework

Japan, Australia: Establishing regulatory rules but remaining cautious

India: Planned to ban private Crypto Assets in 2021 → In 2023, the G20 presidency calls for global regulation → In 2024, the release of policy documents is postponed, waiting to reassess after the US policy is implemented.

Currently, international Crypto Assets exchanges can operate in India after registering locally and undergoing anti-money laundering (AML) review, but they are still limited by high tax rates and strict compliance requirements.

Future Outlook: Observation and Adjustment

Documents show that India will continue the status quo in the short term, with a focus on observation:

1. The formation of an international stablecoin regulatory system

2. The impact of U.S. policy on global capital flow

3. Potential impacts on domestic payments and financial stability

In the context of global cryptocurrency regulation still being ununified, India's strategy is "wait and see + risk prevention", neither fully embracing nor completely shutting down.

Conclusion

India's refusal to push for comprehensive encryption regulation reflects the delicate balance that emerging economies must maintain amidst the wave of digital assets: the need to prevent systemic risks while not wanting to completely miss out on technological and capital opportunities. In the future, the internationalization of stablecoins and regulatory trends in the United States may become the biggest variables for India in adjusting its policies.