Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate

Prediction markets are serving a split-decision special: Democrats have the edge for the House in 2026, while Republicans hold the Senate lead, and the 2028 presidential board has JD Vance on top with Gavin Newsom chasing.

2026 Outlook—Democrats Eye House Control, Republicans Hold Senate Edge

Data collected Friday, Sept. 12, 2025, shows a neat partisan fork. On Polymarket, traders put the Democratic Party at 69% to win the House and the Republican Party at 71% to control the Senate next year.

Kalshi’s crowd echoes the theme, with Democrats at 68% for the House and Republicans at 71% for the Senate. Volumes vary—tens of thousands of dollars on Polymarket and a few hundred thousand on Kalshi—but the directional take is consistent.

Consider it a current vibes check, not a verdict. These are implied probabilities, not guarantees, and they move with headlines, fundraising, retirements, and the occasional campaign faceplant. Still, when two independent venues rhyme, it’s worth a raised eyebrow and fresh coffee, at least for now.

JD Vance Tops Odds, Newsom Second, and Trump Still Lingers for a Third Term

Zooming out to 2028, the White House heat looks like a two-name marquee. JD Vance tops the Polymarket board at 28% and Gavin Newsom follows at 22%. The midtable is a grab bag at 5%—Marco Rubio and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Meanwhile, a 3% cluster interestingly includes President Donald Trump, Pete Buttigieg, Gretchen Whitmer, Wes Moore, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, and Andy Beshear. Below that, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, and Ron DeSantis hover around 2%.

The 1% club features Donald Trump Jr., JB Pritzker, Tulsi Gabbard, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Elon Musk, LeBron James, Glenn Youngkin, Stephen Smith, and Tim Walz. Greg Abbott sits below 1%. It’s early. And, yes, the list reads like a group chat nobody left.

What ties it together is the market’s appetite for a split government next year and a 2028 field that’s still quite crowded and very quirky. If the pricing holds, Capitol Hill may be headed for another two-tone makeover while the presidential race waits for its heavyweight entrants to actually, you know, enter.

For now, the House leans blue, the Senate leans red, and 2028 belongs to Vance—barely.