Is the September fall actually a golden pit? Historical data reveals: all five major Bitcoin bull runs started in October.

Written by: White55, Mars Finance

As the end of September approaches, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $109,000, and market sentiment is quietly shifting towards expectations of "Uptober" (a bullish market in October).

This seasonal phenomenon is not unfounded; historical data reveals that October is often one of the strongest months for Bitcoin performance throughout the year. However, this year’s market environment is complex and intertwined—September did not exhibit the traditional "curse," but increased volatility within the month, large-scale outflows of ETF funds, and uncertainty in macro policies have cast a shadow over the trajectory for the fourth quarter. This article will deeply analyze the potential trajectory of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter from four dimensions: historical patterns, current market dynamics, the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, and future outlook.

1. "Uptober" in History: Data Support and Seasonal Logic

Since 2013, Bitcoin has shown significant regularity in its performance in October: over the past 12 years, it has increased in price 10 times, with an average increase of 21.89%. Notably, the increases during bull market phases in 2013 (+60.79%), 2017 (+47.81%), and 2021 (+39.93%) are particularly prominent.

This phenomenon is dubbed "Uptober" by the market, and there are multiple logical supports behind it.

First of all, the fourth quarter is usually a window for institutional funds to reallocate, as investors tend to increase their positions in high-volatility assets with rising risk appetite at the end of the year.

Secondly, the Bitcoin halving cycle often resonates with October - for example, the bull markets of 2017 and 2021 both started in October, and the supply contraction effect after the halving in 2024 may also become prominent in the fourth quarter.

In addition, the macro liquidity environment tends to ease in October: the Federal Reserve has often shifted to a dovish stance in September-October in recent years. For instance, after the rate cut in September 2024, the market's expectation for further rate cuts in October rose to 91.9%, providing fuel for risk assets.

However, history is not an absolute template. In October 2014 and 2018, declines of -12.95% and -3.83% were recorded respectively, indicating that "Uptober" needs to work in conjunction with the macro background to be effective.

September 2025 closed with a slight increase of 1%. Although it did not trigger a significant drop, it also did not accumulate enough momentum, which makes the trend in October more reliant on real-time fundamentals rather than purely seasonal patterns.

II. Current Market Status: The Legacy of September's Volatility and the Divergence in Capital Flow

In the last two weeks of September, Bitcoin fell from around $117,000 to about $108,000, a decline of nearly 8%. During this period, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $3 billion, with long leverage being massively cleared.

This adjustment is seen by some analysts as a "healthy correction" as it has cleared excessive leverage and laid the foundation for a subsequent rebound. However, the signals from the funding side appear contradictory:

ETF capital outflow intensifies: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous net outflows for several days, reaching a weekly scale of $902.5 million, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC experiencing significant redemptions.

The Ethereum ETF is also weak, with nearly $800 million flowing out weekly, marking the worst record since its launch. The phase of cooling institutional demand reflects the market's cautious attitude towards overvalued assets.

On-chain data shows resilience: Despite price pressure, Bitcoin long-term holders (HODLers) have not shown panic selling. Net realized profit and loss (NRPL) remains positive, and buy orders around the key support level of $109,500 are active, indicating that core investors' confidence in long-term logic remains unchanged.

This differentiation reveals the core contradiction of the market: short-term capital flows are constrained by macro uncertainties (such as divergences in Federal Reserve policy and disturbances from the U.S. elections), while the narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity (institutional accumulation and halving supply contraction) remains a long-term support.

III. Fourth Quarter Drivers: The Battle of Bull and Bear Forces

1. Bullish Catalyst

Macroeconomic liquidity shift: If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates as expected at the FOMC meeting on October 29, it will weaken the dollar. Historical data shows that the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index has reached -0.25 (a two-year low), making it easier for funds to flow into the crypto market during the interest rate cut cycle.

Institutional behavior deepens: As of August 2025, over 290 companies hold Bitcoin worth $163 billion, with corporate demand growing at about 4.3 times the production of Bitcoin. Additionally, the Ethereum fork upgrade is scheduled for April 2026, and if the technical upgrade goes smoothly, it may reignite interest in smart contract platforms.

Technical key support level defense: If Bitcoin holds the support level of $109,500 and breaks through the resistance at $117,700, it may trigger a trend reversal. Technical analysts believe that the current trend is highly similar to the consolidation and washout seen before the bull market started in 2017.

2. Risk and Suppressing Factors

Regulatory Uncertainty: The increased compliance scrutiny of cryptocurrency exchanges by the U.S. SEC, along with the investigation into the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) model, may hinder the pace of institutional entry.

Market sentiment is weak: The negative feedback loop of ETF fund outflows may amplify selling pressure, especially when prices break below key support levels, and panic selling could lead to testing the low of $98,000.

Potential Impact of Black Swan Events: Recent hacker attacks on projects like UXLINK and GriffinAI have triggered localized panic, and if security incidents spread, they could undermine overall confidence.

IV. Future Path Forecast: Market Trends under Three Scenarios

Based on the current variables, the fourth quarter may present the following three scenarios:

Optimistic scenario (30% probability): The Federal Reserve releases clear dovish signals, Bitcoin quickly recovers to $115,000 and challenges its all-time high. Institutional funds flow back into ETFs, combined with the brewing "Uptober" sentiment, pushing the price towards the target of $165,000.

Neutral scenario (probability 50%): A tug-of-war between long and short factors, with Bitcoin oscillating widely in the range of $100,000 to $120,000. The market is waiting for clear signals such as the results of the US interest rate cut, with volatility remaining high but lacking a directional trend.

Cautious scenario (20% probability): Deterioration of macro data, geopolitical factors, or tightening regulations triggers a systematic sell-off, with Bitcoin testing the support at $100,000. If it falls below this level, it may further test $98,000 (52-week moving average), but long-term investors may accelerate their buying in this area.

Conclusion: Seeking a balance between seasonal patterns and real-time fundamentals.

"Uptober" is not an automatic calendar magic, but a combination of historical probabilities and market psychology. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin is facing short-term pressure from institutional fund outflows, while enjoying long-term support from the narrative of interest rate cuts and scarcity. For investors, rationally viewing seasonal patterns, closely monitoring Federal Reserve policies and the flow of ETF funds is essential to navigate volatility and seize opportunities.