Toncoin (TON) must protect this support level if it does not want to fall to 1.2 dollars.

The CVD chart (Cumulative Volume Delta) of Toncoin (TON) is currently showing strong selling pressure, with red zones dominating recent activity, highlighting strong sell orders from buyers.

Buyers have shown weakness around the $2 price level, increasing the risk of a deeper decline if the selling trend continues. A recovery back to the green zone would mark the return of buyers, helping to protect the $2 level for TON.

As of now, the market trend is leaning towards a negative direction, with the possibility of dropping to 1.60 dollars or 1.20 dollars if the 2 dollar level is not maintained. The 2 dollar zone remains a decisive factor for the next developments of TON.

TON is consolidating near a key support level

For the past few months, the price of TON has been stuck in a consolidation channel between $2.50 and $3.68, with recent trading testing back to $2.80 and $3.20 without conviction.

Price action shows hesitation, as buyers struggle to maintain momentum while sellers continue to restrain recovery. Consolidation phases often lead to explosive movements when the direction becomes clear. If the $2.50 level is broken, the downside risk may increase, while holding above the support level will facilitate a recovery.

Source: TradingViewThis stalemate emphasizes the importance of the $2 level as a determining factor for the next move of TON.

Trading volume decreases: Signs of weakening confidence

The bubble map of spot trading volume shows a weakening in trading activity, with shrinking bubbles and decreasing intensity over trading sessions. This behavior reflects hesitation from both buyers and sellers, particularly highlighting the lack of decisiveness from buyers. History shows that a decrease in trading volume often occurs before significant shifts in the market, through accumulation or distribution.

Source: CryptoQuantIn the case of TON, this decrease in trading activity indicates weakening momentum and a lack of strong capital inflow from buyers. Without a return of volume strength, any recovery attempts are at risk of failure, reinforcing overall downward pressure.

The influx of funds into the exchange highlights the downward pressure

The weekly net cash flow data of TON shows continuous inflows, with 4.12 million dollars recently signaling new selling pressure. Inflows typically reflect the transfer of tokens to exchanges for liquidation, consistent with weak CVD signals and decreasing trading volume.

This momentum reduces the hope for price increases as supply increases, leading to further downside risks. Unless there is a clear shift of cash flow towards outflows, indicating accumulation, the selling trend is likely to continue.

Investors remain cautious as the cash flow underscores the fragility around the 2 dollar support level, raising doubts about sustainability unless market conditions change rapidly.

Source: CoinGlass## Conclusion

Ultimately, the $2 level remains the decisive battleground for TON. If buyers reassert control and the inflow of funds to the exchange decreases, a recovery to the $3.20–$3.50 range becomes feasible. However, with selling pressure prevailing and the inflow of funds to the exchange increasing, TON risks sliding down to $1.60 or even $1.20.

The next developments of TON will depend on its ability to maintain the $2 level in the upcoming trading sessions.

Mr. Teacher