How high can the price of SOL increase if the Solana spot ETF is approved?

Solana (SOL) has traded around the 230 USD mark after a 20% increase from the local low of 191 USD set on September 25. This bounce back is driven by increased optimism about the potential approval of (ETFs) for Spot Solana in the United States this week.

Could this be the key factor helping SOL price break through the 300 USD threshold?

Is the Solana ETF about to launch?

The attention on ETFs in October could create the necessary momentum for SOL to break into a price discovery phase, as the deadlines for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are approaching this week.

The agency is expected to make a decision on nine spot ETF applications for Solana, with the application deadlines from companies such as VanEck, Canary, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton approaching on Friday. Applications from Bitwise and 21Shares are also in the final review stage ahead of October 16.

"This is an important week for Solana. The deadline for the approval of the ETF $SOL for immediate delivery is only 4 days away," Lark Davis, a well-known YouTuber in the cryptocurrency space, shared in a post on X on Monday, while emphasizing:

"There is a high possibility that we will receive approval this week."

Bloomberg's senior ETF analysts estimate the probability of approval to be as high as 100%, thanks to regulatory clarity and leadership changes at the SEC.

Probability of approval for cryptocurrency ETF | Source: James SeyffartBetters on Polymarket also show strong optimism, with odds for a Solana spot ETF in 2025 exceeding 99%.

The SEC's application of common listing standards for digital asset ETFs has simplified the process, eliminating the need to change specific rules for each type of asset. If Solana spot ETFs are "green-lighted", SOL could enter a new chapter in institutional acceptance, as HODL Gentleman wrote in a post on Tuesday on X.

The approval could open up billions of USD in capital from institutions, as seen with the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF, SSK, launched on July 2 with over 33 million USD in trading volume on its first day.

According to a report by Coinphoton, Grayscale's launch of staking for Solana trading products further reinforces the optimistic outlook for SOL.

Can the price of SOL surpass 300 USD?

The price action of SOL has formed two bullish flag patterns on the daily timeframe, indicating the potential for the asset to increase to 300 USD and beyond. A bullish flag is a continuation pattern that occurs after a significant increase, followed by a consolidation phase at a higher price level. According to technical rules, a breakout above the upper trendline of the flag could trigger a strong bullish rally.

The daily chart of SOL shows two bullish flag patterns, as illustrated in the figure below. The first pattern is a smaller flag formed since September 25, which will be completed when the price breaks above the upper boundary of the flag at 233 USD.

The measurement target for this model, calculated by the height of the flag plus the breakout point, is 290 USD, corresponding to a 25% increase from the current level.

Daily chart SOL/USD | Source: TradingViewThe second pattern is a larger bullish flag that has formed since early August, predicting a higher target for this altcoin. SOL broke through the upper boundary of the flag around 212 USD on Wednesday, as shown in the chart above. With the breakout still ongoing, the price of SOL could continue its upward trend towards a measured target of 345 USD, corresponding to a 50% increase from the current level.

Daily chart SOL/USD | Source: NekoZ A similar target has been set by analyst NekoZ, who pointed out that a simple technical setup in an upward parallel channel predicts that the price of SOL will reach 346 USD.

As Coinphoton reported, the upward-sloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that buyers are in control of the market. This increases the likelihood of a breakout above the strong resistance at 260 USD, which is essential to maintain the bullish trend.

Mr. Giáo