Alts once again fall into a cold winter, how to cope with the current dilemma?

Since the beginning of this year, the most significant characteristic of the cryptocurrency market has been the difficulty in sustaining upward momentum. This situation is reflected not only in the small alts on trading platforms but also in the on-chain tokens that performed well in the fourth quarter of last year, which have encountered a significant decline.

Taking AI-related tokens as an example, the decline this year has been astonishing:

• Virtual down 79.2%
• Ai16z dropped 85.5%
• AIXBT dropped 68%
• Griffain dropped 80.3%
• Buzz fell by 72.4%
• Fartcoin dropped 67.5%
• ARC dropped 62%
• Swarms dropped 45%

In less than three months, these once highly regarded leading projects have evaporated around 80% of their market value. Although it cannot yet be determined that this track has failed, the loss of investor attention has become a fact, and it will be difficult to attract it back in the short term.

Looking at the celebrity coin sector again, it started with Trump, and then other celebrities and even countries followed suit. However, the decline of these tokens since their peak has also been devastating:

• Trump fell by 77.1%
• Melania dropped 91%
• Vine fell by 92.7%
• jailstool dropped by 93.5%
• Jellyjelly dropped 98%
• CAR dropped 98.5%
• Libra fell by 94.3%

In the cryptocurrency circle, there is a saying: "Speculate on the new, not the old," which means that funds tend to favor newer concepts for speculation. However, compared to AI-related tokens, the decline in the celebrity coin sector is even more severe. So, what are the main issues currently facing these two sectors? In the absence of new concepts, is there still a possibility for breakthroughs?

Current Narrative Dilemma: Concept Hype Prevails, Lack of Substance

In terms of AI-related projects, most are still at the "concept demonstration" and "future blueprint" stages, lacking practical products that can be widely promoted. Even though some operational services have indeed appeared on the market, they often suffer from complex interfaces and poor user experiences, making it difficult for ordinary investors to maintain motivation for continued use. Worse still, some project teams, in order to cater to investors' expectations for "AI + blockchain", often inflate prices through exaggerated narratives, while the actual implementation of applications continues to be delayed. Over time, funds lose patience, attention begins to shift, leading to a significant decline in the prices of related tokens.

As for celebrity coins, although Trump sparked a wave of enthusiasm, the cryptocurrency market soon encountered the issue of "celebrity effect decay": it is unlikely that a second public figure can match Trump in terms of topicality and influence. Subsequently, political leaders, internet celebrities, and stars from various countries followed suit, but none could replicate the initial funding heat and market sentiment. As the market's enthusiasm gradually waned, the celebrity coin track exhibited a fleeting characteristic, investor confidence rapidly eroded, and prices naturally fell accordingly.

The reason these sectors experience drastic fluctuations is that many projects only stay at the "hype concept" level, lacking real and sustainable profit models. Whether it is AI-related tokens or celebrity coins, their core narrative relies on the rapid influx of capital and popularity, but lacks the motivation for users to participate in the long term. Once the hype fades, it becomes difficult to maintain prices, let alone attract new funds to enter the market.

Finding real yield projects is key

To stand out in the current market with a weak narrative, the key is to find products that offer "real returns" and are willing to share those returns with users. "Real returns" refer not only to the short-term gains made when a coin is listed on an exchange but also to the ability to generate continuous returns through actual business models and trading behaviors, and to distribute those returns to token holders or ecosystem participants.

Taking a certain decentralized derivatives trading platform as an example, its business model is similar to that of a centralized exchange, with the main source of income being contract trading fees. However, the platform uses all fees for repurchasing platform tokens, and the trading fees are directly related to trading volume, which tightly binds the value of the tokens to the platform's business.

According to data, the platform accounts for approximately 45% of the total 24-hour trading volume of decentralized perpetual contract exchanges, with an average daily trading volume of $3.78 billion and daily revenue of about $1 million. Even in the current market downturn, the platform maintains a very high level of activity. This is also why, amidst the general decline of alts in the past month, the platform's token price has remained strong.

No matter how popular a concept is, there will eventually be a day of retreat. Those projects that can exist in the cryptocurrency market for the long term are still those that find the product-market fit, have high user stickiness, and can generate real profits.