The market has entered the "Expectation Disorder" phase, focusing on defense while waiting for opportunities.

Recently, the market has shown characteristics of "disordered expectations", mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. The policy path is nonlinear

The government's tariff policy has shown internal divisions and short-term fluctuations, making it difficult to form long-term consistency. The unpredictability of the policy has disrupted market confidence and reinforced the "noise-driven" characteristics of asset prices.

2. The Split of Soft and Hard Data

Despite strong short-term hard data such as retail sales, soft data like consumer confidence has comprehensively weakened. This lagging effect, resonating with policy disruptions, makes it difficult for the market to accurately grasp the direction of the macro fundamentals.

3. Pressure on Central Bank's Expectation Management Increases

The central bank's statement remains neutral and tight to prevent the market from pricing in easing too early. The current situation for the central bank is that inflation is not stable, but it is being forced to cut interest rates by fiscal policy, and the core contradiction is becoming increasingly sharp.

In the face of this situation, we believe the main risks come from:

1. Confusion over policy expectations: The biggest risk is not "how much the tariffs will increase," but rather "no one knows what the next step will be," leading to a loss of credibility in policy.

2. Market expectations become unanchored: If the market believes that the central bank will be "forced to ease" under high inflation/economic recession, it may lead to an "mismatch market" characterized by widening credit spreads and rising long-term interest rates.

3. The economy is on the brink of stagflation: short-term data is masked by the buying effect, and the risk of slowing real consumption is accelerating accumulation.

Based on the above judgment, our strategic recommendation is:

1. Maintain defensive structure: Currently lacking systematic reasons to go long, it is recommended to avoid chasing highs and heavily investing in aggressive assets.

2. Focus on the structure of the interest rate curve: once a mismatch occurs with a decline in the short end and an increase in the long end, it will pose a double threat to overvalued and credit assets.

3. Maintain a bottom-line thinking and moderately inverse allocation: Volatility repricing will bring structural opportunities, but the premise is to control the position and pace well.

Overall, the market is entering a multi-variable transition period dominated by policy noise, lagging economic signals, and declining stability of expectations. In this phase dominated by structural uncertainty, "controlling risk" and "delaying bets" may be more important than any aggressive strategy.