Bullish will be the ‘second largest’ institutional exchange after Coinbase if it does one thing, Bernstein says

Bullish, the Peter Thiel–backed crypto exchange, is stepping into the ring.

With a $3.5 billion war chest in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, plus $1 billion in proceeds from its public float, Bullish is emerging as Coinbase’s most serious challenger in the institutional crypto market.

That’s according to new research from wealth management firm Bernstein, which initiated coverage of Bullish stock with a “Market Perform” rating and a $60 price target, implying a 15% upside from Friday’s close.

The prediction hinges on one thing: whether or not Bullish will successfully launch its US business by the end of 2026, Bernstein said.

While the company successfully closed a $1 billion initial public offering at the New York Stock Exchange in August, Bullish’s services are not yet available to US customers.

“We expect [Bullish] to be second largest institutional exchange after Coinbase,” Gautam Chhugani and three other Bernstein analysts said in a Sunday note to investors.

They predicted that Bullish will contribute 11% of total volumes and 10% of transaction revenue to the US market once launched.

Bernstein forecasts that the institutional crypto trading market’s value will more than triple, from $5 billion in 2024 to $18 billion by 2030, with the US market share surging from 7% to 20%.

Valuing Bullish at 34 times 2027 estimated EBITDA — a premium to competitors Coinbase and Robinhood — Bernstein expects the company to grab 8% of US spot volumes and 4% overall institutional market share by 2027.

Compliance-first model

Bullish is following Coinbase’s by stockpiling licences in lucrative jurisdictions such as Hong Kong and Germany, and is expected to get its New York BitLicense this year . It is still not available in German or Hong Kong, per Bullish’s website.

That positions it to capitalise on regulatory tailwinds that are drawing asset managers, broker-dealers, and banks into digital assets.

And its portfolio extends beyond trading.

The firm owns crypto media outlet CoinDesk and indices with $41 billion in assets tracking them. Subscription revenue from data, indices and liquidity services is forecast to nearly triple to $145 million by 2027, making up 39% of total revenue.

Derivatives are expected to be the next pillar of growth.

Crypto futures already make up 73% of global volumes, but US derivatives markets are still in their infancy.

Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email at lance@dlnews.com*.*

View Comments