Interest Rate Decision Outlook: Voting Discrepancies Widen, a "Three-Party Struggle" May Unfold

On September 17, the Fed's hawks and doves were divided, with several institutions making predictions about the interest rate cut: 1. Citibank: It is highly likely that three voting members will support a 50 basis point cut at this meeting, namely Fed governors Waller, Bowman, and Milan. 2. Morgan Stanley: The Fed is expected to decide on a 25 basis point cut, but the newly appointed Fed governor Milan will hold a different opinion, advocating for a 50 basis point cut. 3. JPMorgan: The Fed is expected to decide on a 25 basis point cut, but during the voting phase, it is anticipated that 2-3 attendees will cast dissenting votes in favor of a 50 basis point cut. 4. Rabobank: There is no doubt that Milan will support a cut at this meeting along with the dissenters from July, Bowman and Waller, and may even advocate for a significant 50 basis point cut. 5. ING: Waller and Bowman may vote in favor of a larger cut, and Trump's newly appointed governor Milan might join this camp, though we suspect he ultimately will not vote in favor of a 50 basis point cut. 6. SPI Asset Management: Internally, the Fed will likely have 2 or 3 members supporting a 50 basis point cut, while the rest support a 25 basis point cut; Cook may change his previous stance to support a 25 basis point cut to counter Trump. There may be three types of votes 1. Deutsche Bank: At this meeting, there may be as many as three members in the "dove" camp calling for a 50 basis point cut, while the "hawk" camp may have one or two voting against the cut. 2. Wrightson: The Fed may see dual opposing opinions at this meeting, with Waller, Bowman, and Milan possibly advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while some regional Fed presidents may support maintaining the current policy. 3. ANZ: The Fed's interest rate decision this time will not pass unanimously, with at least one official (Milan) expected to support a 50 basis point cut, while at least one other official (Schmidt) may oppose the policy adjustment. (Jin10)