Real Vision founder: Bitcoin will experience a "five-year cycle" in this round, likely peaking in Q2 next year.

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On September 25, Raoul Pal, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision, stated in the latest podcast released yesterday that Bitcoin is now replicating the ISM (Institute for Supply Management Index, also known as the "business cycle"). The core idea is: Bitcoin is now following ISM, and the interest rates are also keeping the same rhythm. From 2021 to 2022, the Treasury lengthened the weighted average maturity of debt from 4 years to 5 years. As a result, the entire cycle was artificially extended by one year—the original "four-year cycle" became a "five-year cycle." The model shows that ISM will peak in 2026; liquidity is likely to peak earlier since the second derivative of ISM and liquidity (the rate of change) will turn first. "Our guess is: the real peak will occur in 2026, most likely in Q2."

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