The probability of a "U.S. government shutdown" predicted on Kalshi has risen to 70%.

On September 30, according to the forecasting platform Kalshi data, there is a 70% chance that the U.S. government will experience a shutdown on Wednesday. Earlier today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released an emergency plan for government shutdowns, which will suspend all operations and not release economic data during the shutdown. Currently, U.S. lawmakers are inclined to force the federal government shutdown, which may prevent policymakers, business leaders, and investors from obtaining the key data needed to assess the state of the U.S. economy. Santander U.S. Capital Market Chief Economist Stephen Stanley stated that the Fed's next meeting will be held from October 28 to 29, and without the latest government data, it will be difficult to justify another rate cut. Some officials are already cautious about this and hope to see more data. Neil Bradley, Chief Policy Officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, stated that a government shutdown will not push the U.S. economy into recession, but it will come at a cost and increase the uncertainty that businesses and business leaders are already facing.