比特幣 (BTC)，在這一領域的龍頭幣種，已達到對美元的新歷史高點，在2025年5月22日創下約112,000美元的記錄。這一結果不僅在數字上意義重大，同時也進一步鞏固了比特幣的

比特幣 (BTC)，在這個領域的龍頭加密貨幣，已達到新的歷史高點，5月22日，2025年對美元的記錄水平約爲112,000美元。這個結果在數字上具有重要意義，同時也進一步鞏固了比特幣在全球金融市場中的核心地位。

然而，有趣的是，與歐元相比，比特幣尚未達到新的歷史高點，這與近期歐元相對於美元的升值有關，這與全球宏觀經濟動態有關。

比特幣漲：新一輪牛市背後的原因

“HTML 格式

在一段相對穩定的時期後，這暗示着可能的整合階段，比特幣最近的激增讓許多分析師感到驚訝。支持這一增長的因素包括持續的全球經濟不確定性(，推動投資者朝向替代避風港資產)，傳統金融機構的興趣日益增長(，這爲比特幣增添了可信度和穩固性)，以及越來越多的公司，效仿戰略(前身MicroStrategy)，決定將比特幣作爲戰略儲備，其中包括特斯拉、Square、Marathon Digital Holdings 和 GameStop。

 “

在這些因素中，增加了小型零售投資者的新熱情，他們常常預測或放大市場趨勢，但最重要的是，比特幣的總市值已超過2.1萬億美元，使其在全球最具市值的資產中排名第七。

圖1 – 按市值劃分的主要全球資產

面對這種情況，一個關鍵的問題自然而然地出現了：這次漲將持續多久，哪些因素將決定BTC未來價格的走向？本文將嘗試探討近期反彈背後的主要原因、市場反應以及未來幾個月可能的發展。

專家分析：牛市情景與警惕信號

比特幣的創紀錄表現使分析師分成了兩大主要派別。一方面，較爲樂觀的人士預計將出現進一步顯著漲，假設到年底的價值甚至超過25萬美元。導致這種積極展望的原因包括機構投資者的日益採用，與比特幣相關的新金融工具的傳播，如ETF和結構性基金，以及對加密世界的投資日益清晰和有利的監管。

另一方面，也有人呼籲謹慎，強調當前價格趨勢與2021年最後一個季度觀察到的趨勢之間存在顯著相似之處，正是在2022年發生超過70%的崩潰之前。根據這種更爲謹慎的觀點，市場可能很快面臨一次重要的修正。

盡管觀點存在這些差異，分析師們一致認爲監測某些關鍵技術水平的重要性，例如120,000美元的心理關口，其突破或拒絕可能清晰地指示市場的未來方向。其他基本因素包括全球貨幣政策、國際法規以及投資者的情緒，這一直是牛市高峯和熊市調整中的決定性因素。

比特幣與預測模型：到2025年底它能升多高？

如果我們想要進行預測，有幾種方法可以提供未來幾個月潛在價格發展的想法。以 Bitbo.io 提供的預測圖表爲例，在圖 2 中，您可以看到基於 4 種不同價格模型的 2025 年底預測。這個預測範圍在 $99,836 到 $367,275 之間，範圍相當寬，但與當前約 $107,000 的價格相比，確實是看漲的。

圖2 – 根據4種不同模型的比特幣價格預測

另一個有趣的圖表是圖3，它顯示了比特幣價格在各個“時代”(的趨勢，這些“時代”定義爲每次減半前後700天，相對於該時代的最低點。可以看出，牛市總是在減半)完成幾周後開始，而在當前的第四個時代中，仍然有空間向新高潛在漲。

圖3 - 比特幣不同年代的比較：顯示了BTC價格與所考慮時代的最低價格的比較

另一方面，這張圖表中出現的一個重要方面與比特幣從第一時代到第三時代的各個牛市是如何以越來越小的倍數發生在週期最低點的相關，這表明比特幣隨着時間的推移已經成熟，降低了其波動性。因此，這可能表明即使在這個時代會出現新的高點，也不會像過去那樣引人注目。

比特幣在法規與市場心理之間的風險與挑戰

盡管當前的氣候積極，但投資者也必須考慮可能影響比特幣價格的潛在風險，這在不久的將來尤爲重要。

一個主要挑戰涉及全球金融監管機構的反應。日益增長的機構興趣可能導致更嚴格的監管，這會在市場上造成暫時的波動和不確定性。然而，明確和充分的監管同時可能促進更大的價格穩定性和投資者的信心。

另一個相關方面涉及全球經濟趨勢。如果到目前爲止經濟不確定性使比特幣成爲避險資產，從而使其被定義爲黃金的數字等價物，那麼主要中央銀行貨幣政策的任何突然變化都可能引發獲利回吐和突然修正。

投資者的心理因素依然至關重要。盡管比特幣價格創下新高，但與比特幣這一詞在谷歌上的搜索趨勢相關的數據仍顯示出與之前價格高峯相比相對較低的水平，這表明市場可能尚未達到普遍狂熱的階段。這個因素暗示，從現在到2025年底，市場仍然可能有進一步牛市的空間。

最後的考慮和謹慎、知情方法的重要性

比特幣近期創下的高點確認了其在金融市場中的核心角色，爲進一步的價格漲描繪了良好的前景。日益增長的機構興趣、經濟不確定性以及可能更清晰的監管代表了進一步積極發展的關鍵因素。

然而，尤其對於短期投資者來說，保持謹慎並關注與市場波動相關的風險是非常重要的。爲了正確評估未來的發展，監測國際監管的演變、主要金融機構和持有比特幣的龍頭公司的策略、中央銀行的決策以及市場情緒至關重要。

像往常一樣，以謹慎和意識進行導航將繼續是把握未來幾個月加密市場提供的機會的關鍵。

問候和祝您交易順利！

安德烈·烏格爾

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency in the sector, has reached new all-time highs against the dollar, hitting the record level of approximately 112,000 dollars on May 22, 2025. This result is significant not only from a numerical standpoint but also because it further consolidates Bitcoin’s

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency in the sector, has reached new all-time highs against the dollar, hitting the record level of approximately 112,000 dollars on May 22, 2025. This result is significant not only from a numerical standpoint but also because it further consolidates Bitcoin’s central role in the global financial market 

However, it is interesting to note that compared to the euro Bitcoin has not yet reached new all-time highs, due to the recent appreciation of the European currency against the dollar, linked to global macroeconomic dynamics.

Bitcoin Rally: the reasons behind the new bull run

 “html

After a relatively stable period that suggested a possible phase of consolidation, the recent surge of Bitcoin has surprised many analysts. Among the factors that have supported this growth are the persistent global economic uncertainty (which drives investors towards alternative safe-haven assets), the growing interest of traditional financial institutions (which lends credibility and solidity to Bitcoin), and the increasing number of companies that, following the example of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), have decided to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, among which stand out Tesla, Square, Marathon Digital Holdings, and GameStop 

 “

To these elements is added the renewed enthusiasm of small retail investors, who often anticipate or amplify market trends, but above all the fact that the total capitalization of Bitcoin has exceeded 2.1 trillion dollars, placing it in 7th place among the most capitalized assets in the world.

Figure 1 – Main global assets by market capitalization

In the face of this scenario, a crucial question arises spontaneously: how long will this rise last and what factors will determine the future direction of the price of BTC? This article will attempt to examine the main reasons behind the recent rally, market reactions, and possible developments for the coming months.

Experts’ analysis: bull scenarios and caution signals

The record performances of Bitcoin have divided analysts into two main schools of thought. On one side, there are the more optimistic ones who foresee further significant rises, hypothesizing values even exceeding 250,000 dollars by the end of the year. Among the reasons for this positive outlook are the growing adoption by institutional investors, the spread of new financial instruments linked to Bitcoin, such as ETFs and structured funds, and increasingly clear and favorable regulations for investment in the crypto world.

On the other hand, there are those who instead urge caution, highlighting significant similarities between the current price trend and that observed in the last quarter of 2021, just before the crash of over 70% that occurred in 2022. According to this more cautious perspective, the market could soon face an important correction.

Despite these differences in viewpoints, analysts agree on the importance of monitoring certain key technical levels, such as the psychological threshold of 120,000 dollars, whose breakthrough or rejection could clearly indicate the future direction of the market. Other fundamental elements are global monetary policies, international regulations, and the emotional sentiment of investors, which has always been a decisive element in bull peaks and bear corrections.

Bitcoin and predictive models: how high can it rise by the end of 2025?

If we want to make predictions, there are several approaches that can give an idea of the potential price development in the coming months. Taking for example the predictive charts provided by Bitbo.io, in Figure 2 you can see the forecast for the end of 2025 based on 4 different price models. This forecast ranges between $99,836 and $367,275, a rather wide range but definitely bull-oriented compared to the current price of about $107,000.

Figure 2 – Bitcoin price forecasts according to 4 different models

Another interesting chart is the one in Figure 3, which shows the trend of Bitcoin’s price in the various “eras” (defined as 700 days before and after each Halving) relative to the minimum of the era itself. It can be seen how the bull markets have always started several weeks after the completion of a Halving (day 0), and how in the current era, the fourth, there is still room for a potential rise towards new highs.

Figure 3 – Comparison of the different eras of Bitcoin: shows the price of BTC compared to the minimum price of the era considered

On the other hand, an important aspect that emerges from this chart is related to how the various bull markets of Bitcoin from the first to the third era have occurred with increasingly smaller multiples compared to the cycle’s minimum, demonstrating how Bitcoin has matured over time, reducing its volatility. This could therefore suggest that even if there will be a new high in this era, it will not be as striking as in the past.

Risks and challenges for Bitcoin between regulations and market psychology

Despite the current positive climate, it is crucial for investors to also consider the potential risks that could influence the price of Bitcoin in the near future.

A primary challenge concerns the regulatory response of global financial authorities. A growing institutional interest could lead to greater regulatory scrutiny, creating temporary volatility and uncertainty in the markets. However, clear and adequate regulations could at the same time promote greater price stability and confidence from investors in general.

Another relevant aspect concerns the global economic trend. If so far economic uncertainty has favored Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, leading it to be defined as the digital equivalent of gold, any sudden changes in the monetary policies of major central banks could trigger profit-taking and sudden corrections.

The psychological factor of investors remains crucial. Despite the record price of Bitcoin, the data related to the search trends of the word Bitcoin on Google still show relatively low levels compared to previous price peaks, indicating that the market may not have yet reached the phase of generalized euphoria. This element suggests that there might still be room for further bull runs from now until the end of 2025.

Final considerations and the importance of a cautious and informed approach 

The recent highs reached by Bitcoin confirm its central role in the financial markets, outlining promising prospects for further price increases. The growing institutional interest, economic uncertainty, and a possible clearer regulation represent crucial factors for further positive developments.

However, especially for short-term investors, it is important to remain cautious and attentive to the risks associated with market volatility. For a correct assessment of future developments, it is crucial to monitor the international regulatory evolution, the strategies of major financial institutions and leading companies holding bitcoin, the decisions of central banks, and market sentiment.

As always, navigating with caution and awareness will remain essential to make the most of the opportunities offered by the crypto market in the months to come.

Greetings and good trading!

Andrea Unger

The Cryptonomist

比特幣對美元創下新高：接下來會有什麼期待？